\u003cdiv class=\"rich_media_content\"\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_ERROR_8_2I1--\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(25, 67, 115); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px 10px; text-align: right\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"box-sizing: border-box\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e记者丨吴斌 \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"box-sizing: border-box\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e编辑丨张星\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(56, 54, 53); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.8; padding: 0px 10px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(10, 10, 11); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.8; padding: 0px 10px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e在美国政府结束“停摆”后，通胀数据意外低于预期。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e据央视新闻报道，美国劳工部12月18日发布的数据显示，今年11月美国消费者价格指数（\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_0--\u003eCPI\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_0--\u003e）同比上涨2.7%，低于9月的3%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，11月核心消费者价格指数同比上涨2.6%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e明年1月美联储降息的可能性仍然较低，但交易员已开始上调明年3月降息预期。芝商所美联储观察工具显示，明年3月降息概率为60%，高于此前一天的约50%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e尽管这份因政府停摆而推迟发布的报告显示物价压力有所缓和，但考虑到报告的编制存在问题，经济学家持谨慎态度，这一积极变化并不意味着长期高于美联储2%目标的物价压力已出现持续性缓解。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e前路依旧迷雾重重，美联储货币政策需要更多数据来指引方向。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; height: auto; line-height: 0; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; width: 95%\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(10, 10, 11); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.8; padding: 0px 10px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: center; margin: 10px 0%; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; vertical-align: middle; width: 20%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0.5em 0px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(82, 177, 234); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px\"\u003e\u003csvg style=\"float: left; line-height: 0; vertical-align: top; width: 0\" viewBox=\"0 0 1 1\"\u003e\u003c/svg\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: center; box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; vertical-align: middle; width: 15%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(12, 72, 134); border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border-radius: 100%; border-style: none; border-width: 0px; box-shadow: rgb(189, 189, 189) 1.9px 4.6px 3px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; height: 33px; overflow: hidden; vertical-align: top; width: 33px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; margin: 0px 0%\"\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"box-shadow: rgb(12, 72, 134) 0px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; height: auto; line-height: 0; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" data-ratio=\"1\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Oj9ZYzt58KCF5oD7OXkwhFME3oicltqgFzhnzRIz143cgAA/641\" data-w=\"387\" src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Oj9ZYzt58KCF5oD7OXkwhFME3oicltqgFzhnzRIz143cgAA/641\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%\" data-aigc-mark=\"0\"/\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; vertical-align: middle; width: 20%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0.5em 0px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(82, 177, 234); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px\"\u003e\u003csvg style=\"float: left; line-height: 0; vertical-align: top; width: 0\" viewBox=\"0 0 1 1\"\u003e\u003c/svg\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(10, 10, 11); letter-spacing: 2.5px; line-height: 1.8; padding: 0px 10px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(25, 67, 115)\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e意外“跳水”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(10, 10, 11); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.8; padding: 0px 10px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e在通胀数据公布后，下一任美联储主席的热门人选之一白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特表示赞赏。“我并不是说我们已经可以宣布在价格问题上取得胜利，但这份CPI报告好得令人震惊。”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比是上周美联储议息会议上对降息决定投出反对票（主张维持利率不变）的两位官员之一。他表示，\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e最新公布的通胀数据“良好”，如果这一趋势持续，可能为明年进行更多的降息打开大门。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e不过，整体而言，这份意外的通胀数据参考价值有限。\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003e东吴证券\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e首席经济学家芦哲对21世纪经济报道记者分析称，11月CPI和核心CPI均大幅低于预期。美国11月CPI在技术层面面临两个问题：首先，因为政府停摆，10月数据未采集，因此没有10月CPI数据，11月CPI只有同比数据，没有环比数据。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e其次，由于政府停摆11月14日才结束，数据收集工作滞后，部分价格调查、样本采集和行政数据输入在时间上存在滞后或集中补报，一些服务类、政府相关支出和监管价格的更新可能被推迟或以估算值替代。例如，10—11月居住CPI环比均值接近0%，而前几个月环比增速在0.2%—0.3%，出现明显的误差，表明在部分数据缺失的情况下，劳工部在技术处理上的问题令数据存在失真。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对21世纪经济报道记者表示，客观来看，\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e这份低于预期的通胀数据因其特殊的生成背景而参考价值有限\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e，需审慎对待。此前联邦政府停摆造成了10月份数据的缺失，而美国劳工统计局在编制11月CPI时明确表示，数据收集工作直到11月14日才恢复，且部分项目不得不使用非调查数据源进行估算。这种异常的技术处理意味着11月数据的质量和连贯性确实较往常有所削弱。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e因此，虽然2.7%的同比涨幅表面上显示通胀迅速降温，但其中可能包含了因统计中断而产生的“噪音”，仅凭此便断言美国通胀趋势已显著走弱并不严谨。董忠云认为，要对其真实路径做出可靠判断，仍需依赖未来数月所提供的更连续、更完整的数据序列。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e接下来美国12月通胀数据可能会提供更清晰的分析结果，将于明年1月13日公布，美国政府的数据收集工作在停摆结束后恢复到正常节奏，这将使美联储在下个月晚些时候做出下一次利率决策之前获得更清晰的参考信息。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: center; margin: 10px 0%; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; vertical-align: middle; width: 20%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0.5em 0px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(82, 177, 234); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px\"\u003e\u003csvg style=\"float: left; line-height: 0; vertical-align: top; width: 0\" viewBox=\"0 0 1 1\"\u003e\u003c/svg\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: center; box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; vertical-align: middle; width: 15%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(12, 72, 134); border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border-radius: 100%; border-style: none; border-width: 0px; box-shadow: rgb(189, 189, 189) 1.9px 4.6px 3px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; height: 33px; overflow: hidden; vertical-align: top; width: 33px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; margin: 0px 0%\"\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"box-shadow: rgb(12, 72, 134) 0px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; height: auto; line-height: 0; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" data-ratio=\"1\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Oj9ZYzt58KCF5oD7OXkwhFME3oicltqgFzhnzRIz143cgAA/641\" data-w=\"387\" src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Oj9ZYzt58KCF5oD7OXkwhFME3oicltqgFzhnzRIz143cgAA/641\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%\" data-aigc-mark=\"0\"/\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; vertical-align: middle; width: 20%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0.5em 0px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(82, 177, 234); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px\"\u003e\u003csvg style=\"float: left; line-height: 0; vertical-align: top; width: 0\" viewBox=\"0 0 1 1\"\u003e\u003c/svg\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(10, 10, 11); letter-spacing: 2.5px; line-height: 1.8; padding: 0px 10px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e“\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(25, 67, 115); font-size: 17px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e最后一英里”尤为艰巨\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(10, 10, 11); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.8; padding: 0px 10px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e部分企业已通过提高价格来应对关税，而另一些企业则在观望，以免吓跑消费者。鉴于年初往往是企业调整价格的窗口期，未来通胀水平可能进一步走高。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003ePantheon Macroeconomics首席美国经济学家Samuel Tombs表示，截至9月，零售商仅将约40%的关税转嫁给消费者，他预计明年3月这一比例将逐步上升至70%，随后趋于稳定。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e在董忠云看来，即便暂且接受存在疑点的11月通胀数据，并认可美国通胀水平自8月以来总体呈下降趋势，美国通胀的未来走向依然充满不确定性。这主要是因为，在当前复杂的政策环境下，通胀的顽固性风险仍然显著：既有的关税政策成本尚未完全传导至消费端，而未来可能出现的利率下调和财政刺激加码，又可能从需求侧对物价构成新的支撑。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e自2月关税逐步落地以来，美国核心通胀环比增速时常逊于预期。展望未来，芦哲分析称，中美关税长达一年的缓和期大大缓解了关税对美国通胀的上行压力，但考虑到美国平均进口关税已经从2025年初的7%左右升至30%，关税对进口商品价格的压力持续存在，但更多是渐进的。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e芦哲预计，2026年美国核心CPI延续核心商品向上、居住服务向下、非居住核心服务幅度震荡的局面，通胀同比增幅料在3%附近维持黏性；2026年下半年，需求扩张和经济过热的风险，以及鸽派美联储主席可能带来的更多降息，或令美国核心通胀在2026年末面临更大的上行压力。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e当前市场预期的最大风险在于，2026年更宽松的财政与货币政策组合或从需求端给年底的美国通胀带来更大的上行风险，如果能源与商品供给出现巨大波动，芦哲警告称，20世纪70年代二次通胀的历史可能重演。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e综合考虑各种因素，董忠云预计，\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e美国通胀的回落进程预计将是缓慢且波折的，通胀率在较长时间内维持在2%的政策目标之上仍然是大概率事件，抗通胀“最后一英里”的挑战或将尤为艰巨\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: center; margin: 10px 0%; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; vertical-align: middle; width: 20%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0.5em 0px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(82, 177, 234); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px\"\u003e\u003csvg style=\"float: left; line-height: 0; vertical-align: top; width: 0\" viewBox=\"0 0 1 1\"\u003e\u003c/svg\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: center; box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; vertical-align: middle; width: 15%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(12, 72, 134); border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border-radius: 100%; border-style: none; border-width: 0px; box-shadow: rgb(189, 189, 189) 1.9px 4.6px 3px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; height: 33px; overflow: hidden; vertical-align: top; width: 33px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; margin: 0px 0%\"\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"box-shadow: rgb(12, 72, 134) 0px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; height: auto; line-height: 0; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" data-ratio=\"1\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Oj9ZYzt58KCF5oD7OXkwhFME3oicltqgFzhnzRIz143cgAA/641\" data-w=\"387\" src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Oj9ZYzt58KCF5oD7OXkwhFME3oicltqgFzhnzRIz143cgAA/641\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%\" data-aigc-mark=\"0\"/\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; vertical-align: middle; width: 20%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0.5em 0px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(82, 177, 234); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px\"\u003e\u003csvg style=\"float: left; line-height: 0; vertical-align: top; width: 0\" viewBox=\"0 0 1 1\"\u003e\u003c/svg\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(10, 10, 11); letter-spacing: 2.5px; line-height: 1.8; padding: 0px 10px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(25, 67, 115); font-size: 17px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e实现“双重使命”挑战重重\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(10, 10, 11); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.8; padding: 0px 10px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e抗通胀之战难言胜利，就业市场趋弱，美联储实现“双重使命”挑战重重。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e在数据基础不稳固的当下，董忠云表示，美联储需要在维持物价稳定和实现充分就业这两大法定目标之间进行复杂权衡，政策制定难度显著增加。通胀压力持续存在的可能性与就业市场初步显露的疲软信号构成了典型的“双向风险”，使决策层内部产生观点分化：一部分成员坚持将抑制通胀视为当前首要且明确的任务，而另一部分则更警惕过度紧缩政策对劳动力市场可能造成的潜在损害。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e关键经济数据的缺失令评估经济放缓究竟是周期性波动还是结构性转变变得尤为困难，这直接提升了政策应对可能出现过早、过晚或力度不当的概率。因此，董忠云认为，美联储后续的政策走向将仍然呈现出对即将发布的经济数据高度敏感并随之动态调整的姿态。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e芦哲对记者表示，就业和通胀双重目标下，美联储已经持续表示平衡双重目标的难度，但同时在最新12月会议上，美联储也延续了近期更关注就业下行风险的政策重心。在这一思路下，存在低估通胀风险、进而造成误判的风险。但综合来看，在关税风险缓释、通胀趋势下行的背景下，美国经济当前的关键矛盾仍然在于就业。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e短期就业市场风险更大，但长期来看，芦哲提醒，通胀风险更大。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e就业方面，美国政府停摆以来，美国劳务市场延续降温：11月ADP和Revelio Labs私人部门就业环比保持负增长；12月FOMC会议上美联储主席鲍威尔表示，近几个月的非农就业增长可能被高估了6万，每月的就业应当是减少2万；与此同时，11月数据显示失业率延续小幅上行趋势。今年以来的美国劳务市场处于供给收缩、需求降温的紧平衡进程中。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e展望未来，芦哲预计明年美国就业先下后上，就业超预期下行的风险是美联储降息的首要考量。通胀方面，短期看，关税的渐进传导下，明年一季度通胀可能季节性偏强，但反弹幅度料不会太大。2026年底至2027年，因宽财政、增长复苏带来的通胀上行压力预计集中显现。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\u003csection style=\"-moz-transform: scale(0.95); -moz-transform-origin: center center; -o-transform: scale(0.95); -o-transform-origin: center center; -webkit-transform: scale(0.95); -webkit-transform-origin: center center; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; transform: scale(0.95); transform-origin: center center\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: flex-start; margin: 7px 0%; text-align: left\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: flex-end; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 10 10 0%; height: auto; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 0px; vertical-align: bottom; width: auto\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(82, 177, 234); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px\"\u003e\u003csvg style=\"float: left; line-height: 0; vertical-align: top; width: 0\" viewBox=\"0 0 1 1\"\u003e\u003c/svg\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: center; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 0%; height: auto; line-height: 0; vertical-align: middle; width: auto\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-left-radius: 0px; border-left: 1px solid rgb(25, 67, 115); border-right: 1px solid rgb(25, 67, 115); border-top: 1px solid rgb(25, 67, 115); border-top-left-radius: 100px; border-top-right-radius: 100px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; height: 10px; overflow: hidden; vertical-align: top; width: 20px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; margin: 3px 0% 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"border-bottom-left-radius: 0px; border-left: 1px solid rgb(25, 67, 115); border-right: 1px solid rgb(25, 67, 115); border-top: 1px solid rgb(25, 67, 115); border-top-left-radius: 100px; border-top-right-radius: 100px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; height: 6px; overflow: hidden; vertical-align: top; width: 12px\"\u003e\u003csvg style=\"float: left; line-height: 0; vertical-align: top; width: 0\" viewBox=\"0 0 1 1\"\u003e\u003c/svg\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: flex-end; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 10 10 0%; height: auto; margin: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; width: auto\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(82, 177, 234); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px\"\u003e\u003csvg style=\"float: left; line-height: 0; vertical-align: top; width: 0\" viewBox=\"0 0 1 1\"\u003e\u003c/svg\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"-moz-transform: scale(0.45); -moz-transform-origin: center center; -o-transform: scale(0.45); -o-transform-origin: center center; -webkit-transform: scale(0.45); -webkit-transform-origin: center center; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: -18px; margin-top: -18px; transform: scale(0.45); transform-origin: center center\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"-moz-transform: translate3d(6px, 0px, 0px); -o-transform: translate3d(6px, 0px, 0px); -webkit-transform: translate3d(6px, 0px, 0px); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: center; margin: -41px 0px 10px; text-align: center; transform: translate3d(6px, 0px, 0px)\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: flex-start; background-color: rgb(25, 67, 115); border-color: rgb(25, 67, 115); border-radius: 46px; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; max-width: 100%; min-width: 10%; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px; vertical-align: top; width: auto\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: flex-start; background-color: rgb(26, 67, 115); border-color: rgb(166, 115, 57); border-radius: 322px; border-style: none; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: center; overflow: hidden; width: 100%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; isolation: isolate; margin: 10px 0%; width: 100%\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 26px; letter-spacing: 3px; padding: 0px 29px; width: 100%\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"box-sizing: border-box\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003eSFC\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"align-self: flex-start; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin: 0px; vertical-align: top; width: 18px\"\u003e\u003csvg style=\"float: left; line-height: 0; vertical-align: top; width: 0\" viewBox=\"0 0 1 1\"\u003e\u003c/svg\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(160, 160, 160); font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; padding: 0px 10px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e出品丨21财经客户端 21世纪经济报道\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; white-space: normal\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e编辑丨金珊 见习编辑林芊蔚\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cstyle\u003e.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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#FFCF33;--weui-YELLOW-170: #FFECB2;--weui-YELLOW-80: #CC9C00;--weui-YELLOW-90: #E6AF00;--weui-YELLOW-BG-100: #EFB600;--weui-YELLOW-BG-110: #F0BD19;--weui-YELLOW-BG-130: #F3CC4D;--weui-YELLOW-BG-90: #D7A400;--weui-FG-HALF: #000000;--weui-RED: #DC3636;--weui-ORANGERED: #D14730;--weui-ORANGE: #E17719;--weui-YELLOW: #BB8E00;--weui-GREEN: #4F8400;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #2E8800;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06AE56;--weui-BRAND: #018942;--weui-BLUE: #007DBB;--weui-INDIGO: #0075E2;--weui-PURPLE: #6265F1;--weui-LINK: #576B95;--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #E17719;--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06AE56;--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #007DBB;--weui-REDORANGE: #D14730;--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-WHITE: #FFFFFF;--weui-BG: #FFFFFF;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(225, 119, 25, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(0, 125, 187, 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#C59C1A;--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-RED: #FA5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #FF6146;--weui-ORANGE: #C87D2F;--weui-YELLOW: #CC9C00;--weui-GREEN: #74A800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3EB575;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259C5C;--weui-BRAND: #07C160;--weui-BLUE: #10AEFF;--weui-INDIGO: #1196FF;--weui-PURPLE: #8183FF;--weui-LINK: #7D90A9;--weui-REDORANGE: #FF6146;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05);--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5)}}@media screen and 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rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--new-title-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--new-content-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, .7)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and 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rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-GLYPH-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-3: #FFFFFF;--weui-GREEN-100: #74A800;--weui-GREEN-120: #5C8600;--weui-GREEN-170: #233200;--weui-GREEN-80: #8FB933;--weui-GREEN-90: #82B01A;--weui-GREEN-BG-100: #789833;--weui-GREEN-BG-110: #6B882D;--weui-GREEN-BG-130: #65802B;--weui-GREEN-BG-90: #85A247;--weui-INDIGO-100: #1196FF;--weui-INDIGO-120: #0D78CC;--weui-INDIGO-170: #052D4D;--weui-INDIGO-80: #40ABFF;--weui-INDIGO-90: #28A0FF;--weui-INDIGO-BG-100: #0D78CC;--weui-INDIGO-BG-110: #0B6BB7;--weui-INDIGO-BG-130: #09548F;--weui-INDIGO-BG-90: #2585D1;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-100: #3EB575;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-120: #31905D;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-170: #123522;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-80: #64C390;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-90: #51BC83;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-BG-100: 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